Canada Dealbook 2026
Canada Investment Summit · Toronto · Sept 14–15 2026 · 167-project prospectus

Canada Dealbook 2026

Every project Ottawa is pitching to the world's capital, mapped and costed (145 prospectus lines catalogued so far), with Manitoba and the Port of Churchill Plus corridor pulled forward. Prospectus figures are in US dollars; toggle to Canadian.

Summit opens in — days

Two lists, one map

Ottawa is running two separate tracks. The summit deal plate is the 167-project prospectus — things Ottawa wants investors to buy into. The fast-track list is the Major Projects Office roster — things Ottawa wants approved faster, three of them now in the Building Canada Act listing process. Some projects are on both; most are on one.

Where the money would land

Bubble area = disclosed capex. Colour = prospectus sector. Dashed lines are linear corridors. Scrub the year to watch the build-out sequence the stage data implies; press MB to isolate Manitoba and the Churchill corridor.

Sector
Stage · Flags
2026
Comparepick a project on the map → Comparesecond projectOverlay two projects' facts and modelled GDP curves.

Deep dives — cost by component Estimate

The same treatment given to Churchill, applied to the other headline tickets. Every allocation is a range anchored on the public comparables written under each bar; the listed prospectus or proponent figure is shown for reference. Sums that land off the listed number are the point — they show where the published figure sits inside the plausible range.

Manitoba focus

Port of Churchill Plus — the biggest single ask in the book

One Manitoba line item is larger than every British Columbia LNG project combined. The prospectus gives a single capex figure and a single financing ask; everything below the fold on component cost is a public-comparables estimate and is marked as such.

US$57B
Total capex listed for POC+ · 13.4% of all disclosed prospectus capex · #1 of 167
US$3.9B
Preliminary investment requests now on the table (equity, debt, partners)
C$560M
Public money committed to the port & railway since 2018 (announcements may overlap)

Cost by component Estimate

Range allocation of the US$57B across the five scope elements the MPO names (port, rail, all-weather road, energy corridor, icebreaking) plus enabling items. Bars show low–high; the pale tail is the upside of the range. Basis for each line is given underneath.

Kinew has separately floated C$70–80B for a full LNG-scale build with an offshore terminal (APTN / CBC, Aug 2026) — that scenario would push the terminal and corridor lines toward the top of their ranges or beyond.

Public funding to date Reported

C$ millions. Federal + Manitoba commitments to Arctic Gateway Group, the Hudson Bay Railway and the port.

WhenWhoWhatC$M

Timeline

From Indigenous ownership to the summit pitch.

    Every Manitoba line in the book

    Six prospectus lines — including the Kivalliq Hydro-Fibre Link, which starts on the Manitoba grid — plus Conawapa, Manitoba Hydro's revived dam, which is not in the prospectus. Click any card to open it on the map.

    Manitoba disclosed prospectus capex: . Note Manitoba dropped its hyperscale AI-data-centre pursuit in June 2026 (CBC), so there is no Manitoba digital line — unlike Alberta's C$16.9B of BW Velora campuses.

    Where the capex sits

    Disclosed capex only. 15 of the catalogued projects list no figure (Bruce C, NB nuclear, MacTung, Halifax NEXT, Point Tupper hydrogen and others), so the true book is larger than the bars.

    By sector

    Prospectus categories, fixed colour order

    By province & territory

    Project's primary location

    By stage

    How ready the book actually is

    Ten largest tickets

    Share of disclosed capex

    Who is in the room

    100+ institutional investors expected, by home country (CP24, Sept 5)

    Ottawa's own five-year framing

    Budget 2025 "investment budget" — C$ billions, catalysed public + private by theme

    GDP contribution over time Modelled

    No government has published project-by-project GDP. This model phases each project's construction by its stated stage and size, credits 55% of construction spend as Canadian value-added, then applies a sector operating yield once it is running. It is a what-if on the prospectus, not a forecast — the published reference points are beside it.

    Largest modelled contributors, 2035

    Annual GDP in the selected year of the scrubber above the map

    Published reference points Reported

    What official and bank estimates actually say

    +C$24.5B/yr
    Alto high-speed rail GDP gain at maturity (~1.1% of output), 51,000 construction jobs
    Alto / Railway-News
    2–2.5%
    Real GDP growth with the ~C$1.1T project pipeline built, vs ~1% baseline
    TD Economics, Investment Supercycle
    +C$21B
    GDP from the C$6B trade-diversification corridors strategy (incl. C$1B Arctic Infrastructure Fund)
    Spring Economic Update 2026
    330,000
    Jobs across 27 MPO nation-building initiatives worth C$192B+
    Canada Investment Summit site, Sept 2026
    1.1% → 1.8%
    PBO baseline real growth 2026 → 2028–30 average; business investment rebound pencilled for 2027
    PBO, June 2026
    ~+$12,000
    Extra output per person by 2035 under TD's high-investment scenario (7%/yr real investment growth)
    TD Economics

    Project register

    Catalogued projects with public detail. Click a row to open it on the map.

    ProjectProvSectorProponentStageCapexGDP 2035 (model)

    How to read this

    What the summit is. A two-day forum at the Four Seasons Toronto, Sept 14–15 2026, hosted by the Prime Minister with CPP Investments and PSP Investments, aimed at catalysing C$1 trillion of total investment over five years (C$280B of it federal capital and incentives per Budget 2025; the Spring Update frames the private target as C$500B). Invest in Canada compiled a 66-page prospectus of 167 projects in eight sectors with more than US$425B of required capex.

    What is catalogued here. 157 line items: 126 projects transcribed from the prospectus PDF (conventional energy, clean energy, minerals, ports, power), 19 projects in digital technology, advanced manufacturing and transportation reported from the prospectus by The Logic, CP24 and Hashtag Investing, and 12 context projects (Major Projects Office referrals and Manitoba items) that are flagged "context" and excluded from prospectus totals. Roughly two dozen prospectus entries in the last three sections have not been publicly itemised and are not shown.

    Currency. Prospectus figures are US dollars as printed. Government and press figures are Canadian dollars. Aggregation converts at C$1 = US$0.73; the toggle at the top switches display. Where a project gives a range the midpoint is used for sizing and totals.

    Stage → schedule. Under construction starts 2026; shovel-ready / permitted 2027; advanced / FEED 2028; feasibility / permitting 2030; early / concept 2032. Build duration scales with size: 2 years under US$500M, up to 8 years above US$30B. The "stage slip" control delays every start.

    GDP model. Construction-year GDP = value-added share × that year's spend (default 0.55, in the range StatCan input-output multipliers give for heavy construction including domestic supply chains). Operating GDP = sector yield × capex (conventional energy 12%, minerals 15%, manufacturing 12%, digital 10%, clean energy 8%, power 7%, ports 6%, transport 5%), ramping over the first operating year. Projects with no disclosed capex contribute zero. This double-counts nothing but assumes everything gets built, which nothing in the history of Canadian megaprojects supports; treat it as the ceiling implied by the book.

    Port of Churchill Plus component split. Not published anywhere. The ranges allocate the US$57B using LNG Canada (C$18B) as the terminal comparable, per-km northern pipeline and road costs, the MPO's stated scope and APTN's vessel prices. Kinew's C$70–80B LNG-scale figure sits above the prospectus number; both are shown.

    Sources