Power & Utilities · MB

Conawapa Hydro (revived)

Context — not in prospectus Manitoba

1,485 MW on the Nelson River; seeking private financing partner

At a glance

Project location.

Listed: C$18–20B current estimate · C$10.2B in 2013 · not in prospectus. C$ ranges anchored on the comparables under each bar.

Powerhouse, dam, spillway & civil works

C$10B – C$12B

Keeyask (695 MW) came in at C$8.7B; Conawapa is 2.1× the capacity with better site geology

Transmission & AC collector (incl. Bipole capacity)

C$2B – C$3B

New 500 kV ties into the Bipole III / Henday system

Indigenous partnership, community & environment

C$1B – C$1.5B

Keeyask-style equity partnership with Cree nations; licensing

Interest during construction & financing

C$3B – C$4B

8-year build at Hydro's cost of debt

Contingency

C$1.5B – C$2.5B

Keeyask overran its C$6.5B budget by ~35%

Sum of ranges

C$17.5B – C$23B

Capacity: 1,485 MW, ~7,000 GWh/yr — enough for ~636,000 homes
Site: Lower Nelson River, 30 km below Limestone, 90 km east of Gillam
Build: 8–8.5 years after permits; ten units
Financing: Kinew seeking a private financial partner; Manitoba Hydro net debt ~C$25B heading to ~C$40B
Context: Shelved 2014 at C$10B; revived 2025–26 as data-centre load appeared, then MB dropped hyperscale pursuit June 2026

Build 2032–2037 at 55% construction value-added, then 7% of capex per year operating. Peak US$1.3B/yr · cumulative 2026–40 US$10B.

Straight-line distance from the project point to the nearest vertex of each network layer.

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Manitoba Renewable Fuel Production Facility	Advanced / FEED	US$1.4B
Minago Critical Minerals	Feasibility / permitting	US$1.0B
Prairie Silica	Advanced / FEED	US$400M – US$500M
Thompson Nickel Mine	Under construction	US$200M